This week on page 3 of Main Line Life we can all see a story about Tredyffrin Township’s Planning Commission saying “no thanks” to extending boundaries of a proposed “Devon/Strafford Mixed-Use Center”. It would have been a mixed use road clogger like we are seeing proposed elsewhere along the Main Line and there was this one largely debated section, a stretch of Old Eagle School Road that starts at Lancaster Avenue. Like other mixed use plans, as proposed, this stretch would have colored outside the lines and if it had been enacted, gobbled parts of side streets like Meadowood Road, Strafford Avenue, Forrest Lane and Fairfield Lane. Nice, would this have been a potential TRID zone too if it had come to pass?

But once again when it comes to Tredyffrin, both residents and a local government who seem to be able to get it together over issues like this said NO. Good for them. (This week we also learned that Tredyffrin passed on a dog park seemingly due to sheer cost of construction as much as anything else.)

Why when the economy is in the toilet, do we see a continued rush to develop everywhere? Is it so those who would profit stay off the bread lines that the rest of us in this country seemed headed towards thanks to this economy?

And speaking of economy, now we are seeing the new trends in housing running towards rental units. Yep, there was a rise in housing starts, but do you all know in what specific sector? Rental units - as in the economy is bad, people can't afford to own, so now they rent?

Market Scan
Rentals Are Up And Consumers Are Spent
Melinda Peer 05.16.08, 4:55 PM ET

May's housing starts may have been better-than-expected but a surge rental demand and beleaguered consumer confidence data for the month hint that economic pressures still weigh heavily on U.S. consumers.

Friday's hotly anticipated monthly housing starts numbers were better than expected, but did not indicate that the U.S. mortgage market is near bottom. Also, the numbers showed a pick-up in the demand for rental properties.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the number of homes being built for individual families was down 1.7%, to 692,000, in April from a month before. However, multifamily units were up by 40.5%, to 362,000, pointing to the elevated desirability of rental units in a frozen mortgage market...

Hmmmm, we already know about that switch around here. Haven't we? O'Neill Properties in January told Lower Merion Township about their desire to make the 131-151 Rock Hill Road in the ROHO zone 332 apartments plus retail and whatever. (read about updates on ROHO here)

And how many other project have we seen switch to rental, or go (apparently) nowhere at all? Check out the plan for 106 Cricket. Some neighbors think their property values will go up by gobs and gobs of money, which is their right to that opinion, but have they checked the fine print or read the articles about the plan? This proposed building on the Stuard site isn't a building where there will be condos you own, this plan calls for rental units....Rental units where the definition of affordable must be figured out via new math? (Of course, we all know that we have to be mindful of developer's profit margins and there desire to turn a profit when they come into our communities, right? Or do we? Are we responsible for their sound bottom lines? Are we going to see some of the profits?)

And then there are two other projects that were discussed ad infinitum? Allaire on North Buck Lane and Dreycott Lane at the end of Haverford just before Ardmore across from Haverford College on Lancaster Ave?

If Allaire was a baby, would it now be dead? Check out the developer's website:

ON THE BOARDS
Allaire:Three-story, 20-unit luxury condominium building with garage parking

Expected completion: April 2008

Haverford, PA
T.E.H. Properties
42,000 Square Feet

And of course, the website for this behemoth says this development will represent "lifestyle without compromise"? C'mon now with the spinny spin spin alrady? Ok, so it isn't a compromise to pay over a million bucks to be perched next to an autobody shop and across from another autobody shop? At least if they needed a mattress Sleepy's could just walk one right across the street, eh?

But Allaire seems to be um, stalled? Could this be due to the economy?

Then there is the other large project for Haverford, and this one actually has a pleasing design - the upscale project for Dreycott Lane, "The Dreycott". A familiar name in the Dreycott Lane project is David Della Porta. While Dreycott also seems to be on hiatus due to the economy and real estate market, Mr. Della Porta's name surfaced once again in a mixed use plan proposed for Malvern:

Developers Eli Kahn and David Della Porta again appeared before the Malvern Planning Commission to discuss their plans for a proposed mixed-use development on downtown King Street.Kahn and Della Porta are seeking permission to redevelop about a quarter mile of street frontage on the northern side of King Street, spanning 4.7 acres and covering several of the borough's industrial properties. Sites that would be rezoned if the proposal were to be approved include the former Fisher Feed warehouses and the Amerigas facility. The plans include high-density housing, retail and parking.

Hmmm, Malvern needs mixed use fixing too? One project stalls, another pops up? Interesting. Kinda like Wayne, huh? What will happen with the that half baked plan cooked up for 236 N. Aberdeen Ave.? Will Radnor allow FEMA floodplain lines to be moved? You all know don't you that just because a project includes stormwater plans with those basins and whatever, it does NOT mean that there will be, beyond a shadow of a doubt NO additional water problems?

Come to think of it are all of these townships reporting to FEMA as they should be? How do you find out about that without wondering if will trigger massive municipal amnesia and disappearing files? Stormwater is an important component to development, right? What happens if FEMA finds fault with any of these municipalities? Does it impact flood insurance on the part of residents? What kind of flood plain administrator is Radnor Township's engineer really? Why is it neighbors from the planning commission said that the township engineer hadn't even visited the potential development site to check out the land parcel, the steep slope, the neighborhood on both sides of the creek, and so forth prior to telling the planning commission he gave the plans his blessing? How the heck can you sign off on a project without physically examining the site? Or did neighbors mishear? And what about that planning commission in Radnor? Why don't they have any chutzpah? They could have said this plan needed more work before going to the BOC, but instead they passed the buck like a bunch of chickens? That sure was a stunner. Lower Merion and Tredyffrin's Planning Commissions are not afraid to occasionally hit "pause" versus "pass".

Last Wayne thing? So now that the old houses on Bloomingdale will come down, now what? Will they get built and just sit and rot? And what of those other grandiose monstosities? Wicklow or whatever it is called over there on Conestoga Road in the same vicinity? They call them "carriage homes", but shouldn't they call a spade a spade: McMansionettes? They call it "an exclusive enclave"? Sheesh, do all these developers have a "Dummies Guide to Real Estate Spin"? It all sounds the same, and truthfully, doesn't it all look the same? Or same enough, like little Lego ommunities with maybe a handful of more yellow Lego blocks on one and more Lego blue blocks on another? So how are these suckers at Wicklow selling? Are they selling out or sitting around? And what of those mental ward style condos built behind the Land Rover Dealership? (Hey Landrover was sold, will the dealership soon become to be known as the "Tata" dealership? ROFL. Can you imagine saying I live behind the Tata?) And what of the wedding cake meets reservation casino proposed for Wayne near the Post Office? Could Wayne be headed for an Ardmore moment with too much density overwhelming a very small area?

So the real estate market? How is it doing? Are transfers down in a couple townships around here? Hmmm. Heard they were. Check this little blob entry:

Patrick.net: Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops:

It's A Terrible Time To Buy
By Patrick Killelea, Fri May 16 2008

It's still much cheaper to rent than to own the same thing. Yearly rents are less than 3% of purchase price. Mortgage rates are 6.5%, so it costs more than twice as much to borrow money to buy a house than it does to rent the same kind of house....Salaries cannot cover current house prices. This means house prices must keep falling or salaries must rise much faster. You probably noticed that your salary is not rising much, and that inflation in food, energy, and medical care has been more than 20% per year. This leaves less money available to pay for housing. A safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's yearly income, but most mortgages are well beyond that...Buyers borrowed too much money and cannot pay the interest. Now there are mass foreclosures, and senators are talking about taking your money to pay for your neighbor's McMansion...Banks happily loaned whatever amount borrowers wanted as long as the banks could then sell the loan, pushing the default risk onto Fannie Mae (taxpayers) or onto buyers of mortgage-backed bonds. Now that it has become clear that a trillion dollars in mortgage loans will not be repaid, Fannie Mae is under pressure not to buy risky loans and investors do not want mortgage-backed bonds. This means that the money available for mortgages is falling, and house prices will keep falling, probably for 5 years or more. This is not just a subprime problem. All mortgages will be harder to get.

A return to traditional lending standards means a return to traditional prices, which are far below current prices.

(Also check out THIS from the same website)

So, if you live in Lower Merion, you saw some new ideas presented in the Board of Commissioners meeting last evening for the Ardmore Redevelopment from Dranoff. What you see is a shift in what will be proposed to be developed. In a nutshell, behind the Pennywise and Suburban Office a large building will rise for parking and apartments (rental units perhaps?). Six stories? And no development right now on the Bernicker Lot where everyone was o.k. with development. Is this due to economic realities? This developer is a pro, so like O'Neill, Dranoff can't be blind to the issues with the market or he wouldn't be so successful, right? And what about the train station? Last night it seemed they were in the market for an architect?

But what is one of the problems with redeveloping Ardmore? It's not so much the Ardmore Redevelopment Plan, it's the lack of a Master Plan. If all the pieces of the puzzle don't fit, or in plain speaking if the plans OUTSIDE the redevelopment plan do not complement the plans INSIDE the redevelopment plan, will we be left with a larger muddle then what exists today WITHOUT redevelopment? Can it be considered that a Master Plan for Ardmore, not for anything else, might keep all of us (government and citizens alike) from having to vet quite so many probmematic plans? Like a toddler or a puppy, can it be said Ardmore might do best with a little more structure? We have to get this right, and we want the redevelopment to work, right? Well then, extraneous plans should complement the redevelopment plan, not compete with it, right?

Now before the "raison d'être" of this post is reached, check out this interesting article discovered just this morning on the U.S. Economy:

Money and Markets: The Giant Stealth Bear Market by Larry Edelson 05-22-08

Also check out the news on a local trucking company going belly flop down:

Posted on Tue, May. 20, 2008
Jevic Transportation shutting down
By Chris Mondics
Inquirer Staff Writer

The trucking firm Jevic Transportation Inc., of Delanco, announced yesterday that it was ceasing operations after 27 years, a victim of high diesel and insurance costs as well as the tightened economy.

The 1,500-employee national firm, with about 1,000 in Burlington County, making it one of the county's largest employers, said it would deliver all freight already within its system before closing entirely.

Peter A. Robinson, director of marketing and corporate communications, said the company had been feeling pressure from the economic downturn for months and had been reducing positions for some time.

"When you are a carrier, you see the recession coming before anyone else," he said. "Customers are shipping less."

Tiffany Wlazlowski, spokeswoman for the American Trucking Associations, said that rising fuel costs had placed huge pressures on trucking firms.

"For many motor carriers, fuel is now equal to labor as the highest expense," she said. "The trucking industry spent $112 billion on fuel in 2007, and we're on pace to spend $141.5 billion in 2008."....In a letter to employees, Jevic's management said it had been seeking "financing or other alternatives that would have enabled it to continue operations. However, it has been unsuccessful, due in part to unforeseeable tightening of the credit markets."

Check out also our insane gas prices, rising food prices, etc, etc. You want to tell me all is still rosy in Never Never Land? Some would have you believe it. If you are on a Prudential Fox and Roach Real Estate mailing list anywhere, you would have undoubtedly received "The Chairman's Report" by Lawrence Flick by now. It was dated March 19, 2008. It says:

Do I need an umbrella today?
It's 7:15 on Monday morning. You're getting ready for work or helping kids get off to school. The TV's playing.....background noise until the weather report grabs your attention...But if you're not traveling, is it relevent to your day?

....The same holds true when it comes to real estate news, with one important difference. When the press describes what's happening in real estate, they often describe other areas of the country as if they applied to the nation as a whole. We rarely get local perspective....We don't base our decision to carry an umbrella because it's rainy in Stockton, California. Should we let the real estate market there affect our decsion....here at home?

...The national media has followed the adage that bad news sells and the result has been a psychological maelstrom....This has created fear and uncertainty in the minds of the consumers no matter where they live...

It goes on, and you all will be spared the entire thing. Chicken little, the sky might not be falling in just yet, but perhaps,just perhaps, the time for fairy tales in local real estate markets should be over. After all, what happens in Vegas doesn't always stay in Vegas (sorry, couldn't resist the funny). And most over the age of say 7 or 8 don't believe in either the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus either. And what happens in other parts of the United States does indeed have an effect on us. We do not live in a bubble here, even if some still think we are in Never Never Land or some other outpost of the Magic Kingdom.

Speaking of which, check out a development article from outside the Magic Kingdom:

Apartments to replace condos in downtown project
By Riddhi Trivedi-St. Clair
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
05/22/2008

The Park Pacific development by the St. Louis-based Lawrence Group is the latest development downtown to be affected by the housing slump and a tightening credit market.

Lawrence Group is eliminating all 140 for-sale residential units. Instead, the Park Pacific development will have 193 apartments. The price tag for the project was reduced to $120 million from $140 million.

The original plans had called for the renovation of the 22-story Missouri Pacific building to include 98 condominiums and 57 apartments, and construction of an adjacent high-rise tower at 210 North 13th Street with 42 condos.

The new plan eliminates all condos in the new high-rise, which will be reduced to nine stories from 15. All of the apartments will be put into the Missouri Pacific building, Steve Smith, president and chief executive of the Lawrence Group, said Wednesday. Plans for office and retail in the buildings are unchanged.

The original plans were derailed "by the double impact of housing market and the financial market," Smith said. "What happened is, and this is true for anyone (developing) downtown, it is impossible to get financing for condominiums."

Even though 44 of the condominiums had buyers, Smith said, lenders still were uncomfortable....."We are seeing it happen elsewhere" in the nation, Lewis said. "I am impressed that they were able to adapt the project.".....Earlier this year, developers of the $67 million Skyhouse, at Washington Avenue and 14th Street, canceled the project after they were unable to secure financing.

So dear readers, what do you think? Do you thik spin will keep the Main Line Market alive, or will we soon be hearing the horror stories of forclosures we see on the network news in places like upscale neighborhoods in Atlanta and Florida here? Will we soon be seeing stories on the network news of Main Line folks abandoning their pets and stuff in advance of the foreclosure man, or trashing the homes before the foreclosure man changes the locks?

Do we ultimately need more development, or do we need more thoughtful development and realistic planning porcesses?

ABC News: Owners Ditch Pets after Home Foreclosures

Pets Abandoned by Owners After Foreclosure:Animals Are the Newest Mortgage Victims as Owners Leave Pets Behind
By EVELYN NIEVES
Associated Press Writer
Jan. 30, 2008
STOCKTON, Calif. (AP) -- The house was ravaged -- its floors ripped, walls busted and lights smashed by owners who trashed their home before a bank foreclosed on it. Hidden in the wreckage was an abandoned member of the family: a starving pit bull.

In the heart of foreclosure country, abandoned animals are becoming a given, much like destroyed houses and fallen neighborhoods. In Stockton, Modesto and other nearby cities with some of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation, animal shelters and rescue groups are inundated.

The dog found by workers was too far gone to save -- another example of how pets are becoming the newest victims of the nation's mortgage crisis as homeowners leave animals behind when they can no longer afford their property.

Pets "are getting dumped all over," said Traci Jennings, president of the Humane Society of Stanislaus County in northern California. "Farmers are finding dogs dumped on their grazing grounds, while house cats are showing up in wild cat colonies."

Houston Press: Foreclosure Pets
Dogs, cats and other household pets get left behind when owners are pushed out
By Paul Knight
Published: April 24, 2008

The rising number of foreclosures in the area has created a new term in the animal welfare lexicon: "foreclosure pets."

As realtors and junk haulers find more and more animals left behind in foreclosed homes, workers with humane agencies are trying to determine a way to solve the problem.

"It's certainly more prevalent now, and, generally, the people that leave the pets don't care enough to call us," says Melanie Rushé, public relations director for the Houston Humane Society. "Oftentimes we'll see a bag of dog food ripped open. They'll leave a bag of dog food and say a prayer and good luck. It's really ­upsetting."

Foreclosures slam doors on pets, too

By Sharon L. Peters, Special for USA TODAY

They're arriving by the thousands every month, homeless, hapless victims of foreclosure.
Family pets, their lives upended by the ravaged finances of their owners, are landing in animal shelters in large numbers in some parts of the country.

FoxNews: Foreclosures Lead to Abandoned Animals
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
By EVELYN NIEVES, Associated Press Writer

Pocono Record: Animal shelters care for pets abandoned by foreclosure By LAUREL BISHOW
For the Pocono Record
April 24, 2008

STROUDSBURG — Mickey is homeless, the victim of hard economic times.

He was surrendered by his owners, who lost their house to foreclosure.

They had no other option. Despite being the sweetest dog, who is going to adopt him? Mickey is a 14-year-old Chihuahua with bad teeth, a bad leg and a heart murmur. He'll most likely live out his life as the shelter dog at the Pennsylvania SPCA Monroe County Branch, but it isn't home.

According to Shirley McClanahan, the shelter manager of the SPCA in Stroudsburg, as many as a third of the pets coming in are from people losing their homes.

"People don't want to abandon their pets. They don't want to see them in a cage," said McClanahan. "This has become an epidemic. It's really sad. One gentleman, a big strong guy, was crying his eyes out when he brought in his dogs. It hurts me to see it."

Another Pike County woman lived in a car with her dog for three days before finally going to the shelter.

Many people affected by foreclosures are seniors. It is devastating for people to have to give up their pets. Adding to the problem of people losing their homes is that most rental properties have a no-pets policy.

Even worse, some people just abandon their pets in the house

New York Times: In Animal Shelters, Reminders of the Economy By GERRI HIRSHEY
Published: May 11, 2008

ON Valentine’s Day, a loved one named Riley found himself being led back into the same noisy institutional building where he was also known as No. 08-447. The floppy-eared 2 ½-year-old Rottweiler-Doberman pinscher mix had been adopted as a puppy a year earlier from the Stamford Animal Care and Control municipal shelter.

Riley’s return wasn’t a behavioral issue; according to Linda Hollywood, Stamford’s animal control officer, he is a sweet, easygoing dog who gets along well with other animals and children.

“He was clearly well cared for and loved by this family,” Ms. Hollywood said. “But their home had just gone into foreclosure, and they were unable to find an apartment that would permit pets. In general, only the more expensive rentals allow them.”

Riley could be a poster pup for a growing problem at animal shelters nationwide and in Connecticut: pets given up for adoption or abandoned when their owners lose homes owing to foreclosure or tough economic times.

You know, most rentals are NOT pet friendly around here, only a small percentage. Also, if they are they might allow a cat, but most don't allow dogs.... What's next? Are we going to start leaving family members behinds, too? Just a reality check in Never Never Land, that's all. Is that too much to ask?