I've tried very hard to avoid talking about Sarah Palin. My hope has been that if we just ignore her, maybe she'll go away. There is nothing in her background to suggest that she has the education or experience to be president. Before she was governor, she was the mayor of Wasilla, a town with about 5,500 people at the time of the 2000 census (Narberth had about 4,200 and Lower Merion had close to 60,000 according to that same census). She served less than one full term as governor of Alaska, a state that has about half the number of residents that Philadelphia has. She seems sometimes to have trouble distinguishing truth from fiction (remember the Bridge to Nowhere, Troopergate, the oil pipeline, and the firing of Wasilla's police chief?). If you ever listened to one of her speeches, you quickly realized that she complains a lot, but she never has specific suggestions to fix policies with which she finds fault. But maybe I've been deluding myself because it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the reality that Palin is running for president and that she has a base of supporters who seem willing to pretend that she's qualified for the job.

The October issue of Vanity Fair has an in-depth profile of Sarah Palin by Michal Joseph Gross. It is not flattering and, in fact, some might say it's a little scary. It's a long article, but it's well worth reading.

Two months before a special election rematch in southwest Pennsylvania, Republican Tim Burns is sporting a five-point lead over Congressman Mark Critz (D-12), according to a GOP poll memo obtained by pa2010.com.

The memo from pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies says that a survey of 400 likely voters conducted late last month found Burns garnering 48 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Critz. But the margin of error is 4.9 percent, making the race effectively a dead heat.

The full survey questions and crosstabs were not available, making it impossible to independent assess the merits of the poll. But the results track closely with a detailed survey that was recently released by by the conservative group American Action Network.

Internal GOP polls also saw Burns winning in the days before the May 18 special election, but Critz ended up winning by more than seven points. After the Critz win, some Republicans began to think the rematch was a lost cause. But indicators of lagging economic growth that have Democrats worried and Burns’ ability to pour loads of his own cash into the race—if he chooses to do so—have kept the seat in play.

The poll memo, which was moving through political circles Thursday and was also reported by CQ Politics, says President Obama continues to suffer from low approval ratings in the district, where conservative-leaning Democrats have long held sway.

Click here to see the poll memo.

Brabender yesterday said that the commercial does not specifically mention the word Bonusgate and refers instead to Corbett's overall record on fighting corruption.

"When we're talking about corruption we're basically talking about the sheer magnitude of it," said Brabender, adding that the campaign will not mention Bonusgate or use any images from related press conferences or court hearings in that investigation. (Philadelphia Daily News, 9/1/10)

Okay, Team Corbett; if you're not talking about onusgate-bay (wink, wink), what public corruption are you claiming to have fought? (And tsk, tsk, Chris Brennan, for not asking)

What public officials have you indicted outside of onusgate-bay?? (And don't try to claim credit for Jeff Habay; Jerry Pappert indicted him before you even took office. You prosecuted the case and failed to convict on half of it.)

Did you indict York County D.A. Stan Rebert, accused of abusing his office for personal and political gain? You did not.

Did you indict Bedford County D.A. Bill Higgins, accused of raping an intoxicated woman in his office? You did not.

Did you indict McKean County Commissioner candidate Al Pingie, accused of campaign finance reporting irregularities?You did not.

Did you indict state Rep. Mauree Gingrich, accused of forging signatures on her ballot petitions? You did not.

Did you indict Crawford County Treasurer Fred Wagner, accused of using his office to campaign? You did not.

Did you indict former state Rep. Eugene McGill, accused of personally profiting from a non-profit he founded that received state funds? You did not.

Even within the Bonusgate milieu, did you indict State Senator Jane Orie, accused of using taxpayer sources to campaign - even after her intern tried to give you the goods on her? You did not.

Did you indict Bill DeWeese in connection with bonuses, "LCOMM" or directing caucus staff to work on campaigns other than his own? You did not.

Of course, the real problem is not that you failed to indict them, but that you didn't recuse yourself from the investigations (when you bothered to "investigate"). You know, like you howled your primary opponent Bruce Castor should have done.

Did Brabender's weasely defense of Corbett's broken promise remind anyone else of a kid brother in the back seat of a car, chanting "I'm not touching you! I'm not touching you!" while waving his fingers a half-millimeter away from your face?

Are we reduced to treating campaign promises like a game of "Simon Says?"

The latest TV commercial from Congressman Chris Carney (D-10) touts his advocacy for tax incentives to keep manufacturing jobs in America.

The 30-second spot is Carney’s second of the campaign, and it started airing in the northeast Pennsylvania district late last month.

“Made in America,” Carney says in the ad. “It’s a source of pride and an engine of growth, but it hasn’t been happening enough.”

Sporting a big cash advantage against Republican Tom Marino, Carney first went on the air in early August, and is expected to continue his TV blitz through Election Day. The race is currently No. 10 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

See the ad below.

One of Shakespeare’s most popular plays is “A Midsummer Night’s Dream,” a comedy, focused on magic and distinguishing fantasy from reality. Right about now, President Obama is probably having his own midsummer night’s dream, anxious to get back his old magic and separating fantasy from reality as he contemplates the upcoming midterm elections. For Obama, however, dreams could easily become nightmares if he fails to solve the political challenges now confronting him and his party.

In late summer of a crucial midterm election, two political fundamentals are abundantly clear, while two others are almost equally unknown. All four bear enormously on the next presidential election and the fate of the nation over the next six years.

Abundantly clear is that:
1. National Democrats are facing electoral carnage, possibly of monumental proportions, that could cost them the House and even the Senate;
2. The Obama presidency seems increasingly imperiled in its second year; many believe he could not be reelected if he had to face voters this year instead of two years from now.

Abundantly ambiguous are two related political fundamentals:
1. How bad is it going to be for Democrats in the 2010 midterms?
2. What will Obama do to salvage his presidency in the aftermath of the inevitable reverses to be sustained in November?

The how bad will it be question seems to offer only a series of equally horrific scenarios for Democrats. Past midterms provide a guide, and that guide suggests that the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in the first midterm, an average of 30 in the House and five in the Senate since 1938. Only one president in that interval (Bush in 2002) didn’t lose House seats in his first midterm.

Moreover, it has been worse for presidents running in bad economic times and during war. Obama carries both of these disadvantages in 2010. Since 1938, presidents running in such times have lost an average of 44 house seats in the midterm. The Democrats now control the House by just 39 seats.

But these dismal prospects are not the worst of it. To them is added Obama’s personal unpopularity. The president’s approval ratings are stuck under 50 percent and are unlikely to move up any time soon.

Ominously for Obama, a president’s approval rating in the midterm year is highly correlated with electoral losses for his party in Congress. Obama’s unpopularity rivals Bill Clinton in 1994 (46 percent approval), Jimmy Carter in 1978 (49 percent approval), and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966(44 percent approval).

In short, the carnage for Democrats in 2010 is likely to be broad and deep—affecting Democratic candidates at both state and national levels. So to the first unknown—how bad will it be—the answer is most probably very bad indeed. The losses could reach historic magnitudes.

The second unknown is by far the most interesting and the most difficult to forecast. What will Obama do about it? What he ultimately does will determine whether he has any chance for a second term.

For Obama, there are three recent options or strategies employed by comparably embattled Democratic presidencies. Call them the bad, worse, and worst strategies because Obama at this point probably has no really good options.

The “worst” strategy was employed by Johnson in 1968. Faced with an unpopular war, hemorrhaging party support and voter unrest, he simply announced he would not run again. The political consequence of that strategy was Richard Nixon’s election, eight years of Republican rule, and, of course, Watergate.

The merely “worse” strategy was Jimmy Carter’s. After modest 1978 midterm losses, Carter entered his final two years facing an insurrection from liberals in his own party. Unlike Clinton 20 years later, he adjusted hardly at all to public opinion, changed few of his policies, and consequently steadily lost popularity for both his domestic and foreign agendas. He ended his term disastrously in the midst of a bungled hostage standoff with Iran.

The “bad” strategy and “best” was Bill Clinton’s in 1994. Voter anger that year over Clinton policies was widespread. Consequently, the GOP captured both houses of Congress. Many believed the Clinton presidency was over. It might have been, but Clinton shrewdly assessed the damage, saw his limited options, and moved to the center faster than you can say “triangulate.” The result two years later was another term and a revitalized party.

Which of these strategies might Obama employ? Maybe none. While each of these earlier presidencies provides a roadmap, they were all traveling different roads. Obama faces a set of conditions and circumstances unique in the modern presidency—a recession bordering on a depression, unprecedented peace-time debt, and an unpopular war. To get out of this one he might have to invent his own strategy.

Indeed, Obama has done just that throughout his life. During his career, he has faced challenges and overcome obstacles. His historic presidential campaign in 2008, becoming America’s first black president, eloquently showcased his immense capacity to overcome adversity and emerge a winner after all. All of those trials probably helped prepare him for this one. But none of them have tested him as he will be tested after Election Day.

The writers are, respectively, a professor of Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and a managing partner of Michael Young Strategic Research. Politically Uncorrected, their syndicated column, is published here regularly.

There are two things I love about the seashore.  The first is the wonderful light that exists because of the huge horizontal skyline that changes all day.  The second is the human joy exhibited by people of all ages as they bathe in the ocean.  I will be exploring these phenamena in the next few paintings.
The first day we arrived at the beach it was cloudy, but as we were driving home from our fish dinner the sun came out and this beautiful sky appeared over the bay.

LMVUE: LMVUE will be out at First Friday Main Line tomorrow - Sept 3 - with tables in Ardmore! Baked treats and info! Stop by and say hello! :)

I’d like to offer an enthusiastic congratulation to Alex Roarty, my buddy, former colleague and sometimes-friendly competitor.

Alex, who has been the heart and soul of PoliticsPA for over a year and is one heck of a reporter, was just hired by the National Journal, He’ll start work in Washington toward the end of the month.

Congratulations, Alex. You deserve it.

It’s conventional wisdom that Democrat John Callahan would have had a much better shot at unseating Congressman Charlie Dent (R-15) had he run during one of his party’s wave years in 2006 or 2008.

But Callahan says he’s not worried about running against the political tide.

“I don’t know that it’s a bad year for Democrats, I think it’s a bad year for incumbents,” Callahan said in a video interview with CQ-Roll Call. “So I think in an anti-incumbent environment, in a district that’s a [Democratic-leaning] district, running against someone who’s been a career politician and a Washington DC three-term incumbent, I like my chances. I think it’s actually a good year to run.”

The Lehigh Valley race is currently No. 5 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

See the interview below.

The Redistributionist Policies of the Obama Administration take from those who have created or  financial taken risks to build a business, who have saved and invested, to give to those who have not in order to maintain political power. George Bernard Shaw, a Fabian Socialist, observed that “a government that robs Peter to pay Paul can be assured of the support of Paul.”

“This is a rich country. We have plenty of money, and if you don’t believe me, ask Haliburton,”  said former White House “green jobs” adviser Anthony Van Jones .   The  Alinsky Left is promoting  the mindless mantra: “stop-worrying-about-the-deficit-the-government-can-just-take-more-money-from-rich-companies”

What do you think? Plenty of Money or about to hit the Bankruptcy Iceberg?

The American Dream is dead because people and politicians like Jim Matthews have killed it. And now they are taking this opportunity created by their chronic mismanagement and cronyism to try to expand their power base. What’s the definition of chutzpah again? Oh yes: It’s the kid who murders his [...]

“This discovery is nothing short of a geopolitical game changer,” Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a Washington-based NGO that deals with energy and security issues.

AND Bloomberg Business Week (January 19, 2010) has more here.  AND The Finance Ministry will enjoy approximately $5 billion in royalties when gas starts flowing, estimates Gal Reiter, energy industry analyst at Clal Investments. Furthermore, Israel will drastically cut back the $5 billion it pays for fuel imports, leading to stronger balance of payments.

AND Natural gas is highly flammable, and Israel lacks the infrastructure of piping needed to distribute the gas. If Israel finds a way to deliver it safely, the treasure trove of some 24 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could be Israel’s ticket to energy independence, providing the country with some 70 percent of its energy needs for the next 20 years, according to experts.

AND Israel Presses for Oil from Shale (Bloomberg Business Week)

Democratic National Committee chairman will look to frame the looming midterm elections on his party’s terms in Philadelphia next week, delivering what’s being billed as a major speech at the University of Pennsylvania.

A party official told pa2010.com that Kaine will give the speech Wednesday at Houston Hall. Gov. Ed Rendell will be in attendance.

“He’ll make the sharpest contrast that he has made to date on the direction the country would go if Republicans had their way,” the Democratic officials said. “Kaine will use Pennsylvania races as a case study as he paints a very stark picture of what this country could look like under extreme Republican rule with leaders like Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett who have spent their lives fighting for corporate interests over the needs of middle class Americans.”

Kaine’s appearance will come just days after his visit to southeast Pennsylvania this week. Party leaders have also planned back-to-back appearances by Kaine and Vice President Joe Biden on “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report,” respectively, according to Politico, which also reported on Kaine’s plans.

Back from a little vacation, and now we’re just two months away from the big day.

Some things have changed, some things haven’t.

• It looks like the Democrats are in even more trouble than I imagined they’d be. Who would have thought both Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey would be flirting with double-digit leads, and that Democrats would have a real chance of losing up to half-a-dozen House seats in Pennsylvania alone? No one pretends there’s no Republican wave coming any more.

• The Democratic strategy appears to be to run away from the issues and try to scare people about the Republican candidates (as in Kentucky or Nevada) or else to resort to simple trickery (as in the increasingly pathetic shenanigans emerging from Bryan Lentz’s and Dan Onorato’s campaigns). Such tactics might work in individual cases, but they are likely to backfire in others. If anything, they threaten to anger independent voters without meaningfully increasing the enthusiasm on the Democratic side.

• While the Republicans look strong right now, there is a serious danger of overconfidence, both in the elections themselves and their aftermath. Anyone who attends Republican meetings knows that the party is much longer on resentment of President Obama than on clear and constructive ideas for what to do once in power. There is, moreover, a wide and growing gap between establishment Republicans and Tea Party insurgents, one that is less pronounced in Pennsylvania than in other states, but which will directly impact the party’s ability to function should it take control of Congress. The enthusiasm about “Speaker Boehner” should perhaps be tempered with that old adage: Be careful what you wish for, because it may come true.

Republican Lou Barletta has gotten some cross-party support for his congressional bid—albeit from someone who used to be in the GOP himself.

Scranton City Councilman Pat Rogan endorsed Barletta’s campaign against Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11) Thursday, calling the Hazleton mayor “the best person to represent the people of Scranton.” Rogan ran unsuccessful council campaigns as a Republican before being elected as a Democrat last year, and is now the chamber’s vice president.

“This isn’t the time to simply vote a straight-party ticket on Nov. 2,” Rogan said in a statement. “I encourage the people of Scranton to look beyond the party label and at Lou Barletta’s policies and his record and his opponent’s policies and his record. There are very clear differences that make Lou Barletta the best choice for Scranton.

Barletta is trying to unseat Kanjorski for the third time in eight years, in a contentious race that is currently No. 2 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

“Our country is heading in a very dangerous direction,” Rogan added, “and Lou Barletta will help get us back on the right path.”

  Philly can spend a half a million dollars on an anti litter campaign while public safety is being slashed.    PHA Board chairman John F. Street on Tuesday said the board’s five members will meet next week to discuss the federal probe into the agency in the wake of the scandal involving executive director Carl Greene.  The meeting, called [...]

Interesting article in Daily Local newspaper by Dan Kristie (see below).  TESD School Board Member Kevin Mahoney says the school budget could be 15% over budget in 2 years if the pension contributions rates don’t change.  According to Mahoney, the only way to deal with the increasing pensions costs is to pass a large real estate tax increase!  Comments . . .

Retirement System’s Cost to Rise Dramatically Soon

 By DAN KRISTIE, Staff Writer

This is a dramatic increase, considering the district’s 2010-11 budget was $203 million and 60 to 70 percent of the district’s expenses are dedicated to salaries and benefits — a percentage that, because of contractual obligations, is difficult to reduce or change.

Schools across the state are facing similar increases in their retirement system contributions, and their budgets are similarly constrained.

School officials in Chester County expect the state Legislature will — somehow — adjust the retirement system so the increases will be less dramatic. But even if reforms are implemented, the retirement system remains dramatically underfunded. Local officials doubt any state-level solution to the PSERS crisis will save their own school districts from all the retirement system-related pain.

Officials are reluctant to speculate about what will be on the chopping block once the increased retirement system contributions come into effect. The consensus, however, is that if the increases are anywhere near as large as projected, educational programs will be affected.

Kevin Mahoney, the chairman of the Tredyffrin/Easttown School Board finance committee, said that if required PSERS contribution rates do not change, his school district in two years will be 15 percent over budget.

This will be the case, Mahoney said, even if Tredyffrin/Easttown sees no other cost increases except for a small increase in the cost of benefits. Mahoney added that the district is required by law to pass a balanced budget.

“You can only do that by increasing class size or eliminating curriculum choice,” Mahoney said. The other way for districts like Tredyffrin/Easttown to deal with the increased PSERS rates would be to pass a large real estate tax increase.

Act 1 is the state law that limits how much school districts can raise property taxes. Act 1, however, allows districts to exceed the limit in order to cover mandated pension contributions. Act 1 also allows districts to hold referendums if they seek to raise taxes beyond the limit.

Local school officials said Act 1 taxpayer referendums are extremely unlikely to pass in Chester County, given the economic climate and the mood of the electorate here. And, officials said, school districts would be unlikely to try to use Act 1 exemptions to pass the PSERS increase off to taxpayers.

“[The West Chester Area School] board has made it pretty clear we’re not taking exceptions,” said Jim Davison, the chairman of that school board’s finance committee. He added that the electorate in West Chester Area would never go for a referendum.

“I have no confidence in a referendum passing in this district,” Davison said. Davison, like Mahoney, said he believes his district’s educational programs could be in jeopardy if the state doesn’t reform the retirement system. He said, however, that West Chester Area will try to make other types of cuts — to facilities budgets and energy use, for example — and hope for the best from the state-level retirement system reform effort.

“But I don’t know if we can make enough of those types of cuts so we don’t impact the classroom,” Davison said. “That’s the million-dollar question. We may end up impacting the classroom — increasing class size, getting rid of programs.”

Bill Fagan, the chairman of the Downingtown Area School District finance committee, used the metaphor of a series of concentric circles to describe how the retirement system crisis might affect his district. “When you look at the concentric circle with the children in the middle, the farther out you get from that circle, those are the types of programs … more likely to be cut,” Fagan said.

Fagan said he was unwilling to speculate about precisely what type of programs would fall on the outer circles. But, he said, he hoped Downingtown Area could deal with the PSERS crisis without negatively impacting the classroom.

The state legislature in July voted to reduce the 2010-11 retirement system employer contribution rate from 8.22 percent to 5.64 percent, meaning school districts will be required to contribute less than expected this year to the fund.

Local officials said that, in the absence of other action, this only delays the retirement system crisis. “The state has been unwilling to change the benefit program,” Mahoney said. “We keep seeing this ski slope curve in front of us, and whenever we get close to it the state has changed the discount rate, which just makes the curb steeper but farther away.”

What kind of dire straits does Montgomery County find itself in when a simple sound byte about combining municipality provided services on a county-wide basis renders this quote: “The next generation down is starting to realize now that the old idea of the American Dream that this generation is better than the last one is dead. [...]

Not the time to rest, Mr Corbett, but still good news. New polling from Pennsylvania has moved the state’s gubernatorial race from Leans Republican to Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard. Voters will elect governors in 37 states this November. Nineteen of those governorships are now held by Democrats, while Republicans sit in the governor’s [...]

Confused by a recent DSSC attack on Toomey as a “wheeler-dealer”, I’ve attempted to construct what sort of organizational chart Democrats must assume a typical (evil) corporation uses…